If you were an AVCA voter ...
It's never too early to start this discussion. What's tomorrow's poll going to look like and why will it offend us all deeply?
But, first of all, a few disclaimers. Yes, I know it doesn't really matter -- except, of course, in terms of how programs are perceived by the volleyball community and, more to the point, by prospective recruits. (In other words, yes, it does matter.) No, I don't claim to know more about the sport than the coaches doing the actual voting (but I may put more thought into it than some of them). No, I don't claim to have seen more than a few of these teams play (but who has?). Yes, I have my own personal biases, some formed from a lifetime of perceived slights, actual slights, and petty jealousies. And, yes, the girls who treated me so badly in junior high school factor in this somehow! You know who you are!
OK? OK.
1 - Penn State. Last week, the Lions collected 50 of the 60 first place votes. I've been voting them #2 in Ron Kern's poll and Pablo has them at #6, probably due to that DIII schedule they've been playing. (Do I need to explain what Pablo is again? I think not.) But they absolutely destroyed Illinois in Champaign last night, and Pablo (sadist that he is) will love that. I may have to rethink my vote, too. Regardless, the AVCA folks will keep them at #1.
2 - Texas. Big win for the Horns in Lincoln, a real barrel of monkeys off their backs. This has been my #3 team and Pablo puts them at #2. Probably no changes here, although they may lose some of their 7 first place votes from the coaches, depending on what impressed them more, PSU's win at Illinois or this bit of monkey removal.
3 - Washington. I am starting this blog Sunday morning, so the Huskies still have Oregon State to play, but I'm going to assume (for now) they win. This has been my #1 team since the preseason poll and Pablo agrees with me. They handled Oregon fairly easy, one game of the sweep decided by two points, and the Ducks are a Pablo fave. Still, as I mentioned above, PSU is starting to sew some doubts in my all too fertile mind. I will probably stick to my guns, bucking the AVCA contingent who will keep them at #3.
4 - Hawaii. The Wahine, as always, are hard to peg. The UCLA win looks much less special now, but they did sweep Stanford and also pushed Cal to 5 after falling behind 0-2. Pablo picks them for #7. The WAC schedule won't tell us a lot, unless they should stumble. What to do? What to do? One thing you cannot do is move them higher than #4, even if one of the top 3 is upset. That just would not be right. I have them at #4, as does the AVCA. They will stay there. But this is not a confident placement from me.
5 - Florida. Alabama match is still to be played, but I don't see any change here. Pablo sees some weakness (as do I, based on the UW and FSU matches) and can only give them #11. I had them behind Iowa State last week and they've done nothing this week to warrant a move up, my doubts about ISU at #5 notwithstanding. I still think there is a huge upside to this team and they could be really dangerous. But that's what I thought last year, too.
So, #1-5 will not change, barring today's results. Here's where things get really interesting and also where I regret re-upping for the Kern poll, let alone starting this particular blog.
6 - Nebraska. Not the best week ever in Huskerville, a team I had at #9 last week. First, there's the hassle of having to play at College Station on Wednesday against an underrated Texas A&M team, in spite of the fact Texas is coming to Lincoln on Saturday. Then, they go and lose to that underrated TAMU team, which really does not help them focus on the enormous task at hand, and the Horns show them little mercy, winning at the Coliseum for the first time since 1988. (I read that on Volley Talk. This has not been fact-checked.) What to think about the Huskers? So many teams are affected. Michigan's win does not look as impressive, Minnesota's loss looks less forgiveable, UCLA's win also is tainted a bit. What we do know is that Nebraska will drop. But how far? Read on, but I predict #11.
7 - Oregon. The Quack Pack, depending on whether Washington State cooperates (and loses for the first time in 2009), stands to move up to #6 (replacing Nebraska) even though they were swept on Friday by the Huskies. It's possible, should Michigan beat Purdue today, that the Wolverines could slide past them, since they were only 55 points back in last week's poll, but this would overlook that Michigan loss to Oregon State, something that really needs to be front and center in the discussion. I had Oregon at #7 last week and will be moving them up to #6 as ISU falls back.
8 - Michigan. I don't know why the Wolverines were only dropped two spots last week after losing to an unranked team, but I suspect it's because the voters had a hard time dropping them further while giving Nebraska the #6 spot. If there was some sort of hand-in-hand adjustment this week, with Nebraska bound to fall, Michigan would fall with them, but this won't happen. Purdue, of course, could be the correcting factor this afternoon, but if the Wolvies win, the AVCA moves them up to #7. I had them at #12, so I am not as boxed in. (But I have other problems, as you shall see.)
9 - Minnesota. The team I watch the most finally came home for a pair of matches, both sweeps, over the toothless Badgers and the wingless Hawkeyes. OK, that latter description is overly harsh. I had the Gophers at #8 last week and ISU's loss to Baylor means they probably rise to #7. The AVCA has an open spot, too, due to Nebraska's loss to TAMU, so the Gophers probably end up at #8.
10 - Stanford. My guess is that Cal (3-2 winners over the Cardinal at home) move to #9 and Stanford remains #10, with Nebraska ending up in the #11 spot. This seems reasonable and therefore probably won't happen.
11 - Iowa State. What to do with the Cyclones? The AVCA voters didn't have them at #5 last week, as yours truly did, so they don't have that stall to muck, but they still have to do something. Since I had Baylor at #17 (as opposed to their #24 ranking), they still have some explaining to do. Complicating matters are the less than stellar results from Arizona for #13 USC and #14 UCLA, #15 Illinois's flop against PSU and #16 Michigan State making all those AVCA voters look silly. Sillier. Who does that leave them with for #12? Kentucky? Florida State? Pablo has FSU at #5. I'm guessing ISU only falls one spot and they reward Baylor. That's what I'd do if I had Baylor has underranked as they do.
12 - California. Up to #9. I already had them at #10, so they won't jump as far for me. Good team, getting better. I originally had them at #4 to start the season.
13 - USC. Arizona loss offset slightly by ASU win. Good news for the Trojans is that there's no one banging on the door behind them. Although I'd make a case for Baylor, I doubt the AVCA folks will pop them this high.
14 - UCLA. ASU loss offset slightly by Arizona win. Good news for the Bruins is that there's no one banging on the door behind them. Although I'd make a case for Baylor, I doubt the AVCA folks will pop them this high.
15 - Illinois. PSU loss offset slightly by the fact it was Penn State. Good news for the Illini is that there's no one banging on the door behind them and that PSU is PSU. Although I'd make a case for Baylor, I doubt the AVCA folks will pop them this high. I had Illinois at #11 last week and I'll be watching the Purdue-Michigan result closely.
16 - Michigan State. Say goodbye to the Top 25 for 2009, I'm afraid. Way overrated, but could still put together a decent season. Indiana loss, however, did not help.
17 - Kentucky. Up to #16? I'm thinking AVCA puts Baylor at #16.
18 - Florida State. Pablo ranking of #5.
19 - Arizona. Big win over USC and then that darned loss to UCLA. Treading water?
20 - Wichita State. Loss to Missouri State will probably knock the Shockers out of the Top 25, perhaps replaced by Northern Iowa, keeping the MVC in the poll?
21 - UC Irvine. Gauchos push Anteaters to the cusp. Room needs to be made for UCSB.
22 - San Diego. An uneventful week, with only the sweep of San Diego State.
23 - Saint Louis. Also an uneventful week.
24 - Baylor. Seriously underrated and in need of a big jump up. This will finally happen this week. Pablo has them at #4. I had them at #17.
25 - Long Beach State. Nice win over Fullerton, solidifying their spot in the Top 25.
Conspicuously missing? TAMU, Purdue, UCSB. Notre Dame? WSU?
I'm going to go ahead and post this, but I'll tweak things after the Sunday matches. Purdue, for instance, is about to go up 2-0 on Michigan.
But, first of all, a few disclaimers. Yes, I know it doesn't really matter -- except, of course, in terms of how programs are perceived by the volleyball community and, more to the point, by prospective recruits. (In other words, yes, it does matter.) No, I don't claim to know more about the sport than the coaches doing the actual voting (but I may put more thought into it than some of them). No, I don't claim to have seen more than a few of these teams play (but who has?). Yes, I have my own personal biases, some formed from a lifetime of perceived slights, actual slights, and petty jealousies. And, yes, the girls who treated me so badly in junior high school factor in this somehow! You know who you are!
OK? OK.
1 - Penn State. Last week, the Lions collected 50 of the 60 first place votes. I've been voting them #2 in Ron Kern's poll and Pablo has them at #6, probably due to that DIII schedule they've been playing. (Do I need to explain what Pablo is again? I think not.) But they absolutely destroyed Illinois in Champaign last night, and Pablo (sadist that he is) will love that. I may have to rethink my vote, too. Regardless, the AVCA folks will keep them at #1.
2 - Texas. Big win for the Horns in Lincoln, a real barrel of monkeys off their backs. This has been my #3 team and Pablo puts them at #2. Probably no changes here, although they may lose some of their 7 first place votes from the coaches, depending on what impressed them more, PSU's win at Illinois or this bit of monkey removal.
3 - Washington. I am starting this blog Sunday morning, so the Huskies still have Oregon State to play, but I'm going to assume (for now) they win. This has been my #1 team since the preseason poll and Pablo agrees with me. They handled Oregon fairly easy, one game of the sweep decided by two points, and the Ducks are a Pablo fave. Still, as I mentioned above, PSU is starting to sew some doubts in my all too fertile mind. I will probably stick to my guns, bucking the AVCA contingent who will keep them at #3.
4 - Hawaii. The Wahine, as always, are hard to peg. The UCLA win looks much less special now, but they did sweep Stanford and also pushed Cal to 5 after falling behind 0-2. Pablo picks them for #7. The WAC schedule won't tell us a lot, unless they should stumble. What to do? What to do? One thing you cannot do is move them higher than #4, even if one of the top 3 is upset. That just would not be right. I have them at #4, as does the AVCA. They will stay there. But this is not a confident placement from me.
5 - Florida. Alabama match is still to be played, but I don't see any change here. Pablo sees some weakness (as do I, based on the UW and FSU matches) and can only give them #11. I had them behind Iowa State last week and they've done nothing this week to warrant a move up, my doubts about ISU at #5 notwithstanding. I still think there is a huge upside to this team and they could be really dangerous. But that's what I thought last year, too.
So, #1-5 will not change, barring today's results. Here's where things get really interesting and also where I regret re-upping for the Kern poll, let alone starting this particular blog.
6 - Nebraska. Not the best week ever in Huskerville, a team I had at #9 last week. First, there's the hassle of having to play at College Station on Wednesday against an underrated Texas A&M team, in spite of the fact Texas is coming to Lincoln on Saturday. Then, they go and lose to that underrated TAMU team, which really does not help them focus on the enormous task at hand, and the Horns show them little mercy, winning at the Coliseum for the first time since 1988. (I read that on Volley Talk. This has not been fact-checked.) What to think about the Huskers? So many teams are affected. Michigan's win does not look as impressive, Minnesota's loss looks less forgiveable, UCLA's win also is tainted a bit. What we do know is that Nebraska will drop. But how far? Read on, but I predict #11.
7 - Oregon. The Quack Pack, depending on whether Washington State cooperates (and loses for the first time in 2009), stands to move up to #6 (replacing Nebraska) even though they were swept on Friday by the Huskies. It's possible, should Michigan beat Purdue today, that the Wolverines could slide past them, since they were only 55 points back in last week's poll, but this would overlook that Michigan loss to Oregon State, something that really needs to be front and center in the discussion. I had Oregon at #7 last week and will be moving them up to #6 as ISU falls back.
8 - Michigan. I don't know why the Wolverines were only dropped two spots last week after losing to an unranked team, but I suspect it's because the voters had a hard time dropping them further while giving Nebraska the #6 spot. If there was some sort of hand-in-hand adjustment this week, with Nebraska bound to fall, Michigan would fall with them, but this won't happen. Purdue, of course, could be the correcting factor this afternoon, but if the Wolvies win, the AVCA moves them up to #7. I had them at #12, so I am not as boxed in. (But I have other problems, as you shall see.)
9 - Minnesota. The team I watch the most finally came home for a pair of matches, both sweeps, over the toothless Badgers and the wingless Hawkeyes. OK, that latter description is overly harsh. I had the Gophers at #8 last week and ISU's loss to Baylor means they probably rise to #7. The AVCA has an open spot, too, due to Nebraska's loss to TAMU, so the Gophers probably end up at #8.
10 - Stanford. My guess is that Cal (3-2 winners over the Cardinal at home) move to #9 and Stanford remains #10, with Nebraska ending up in the #11 spot. This seems reasonable and therefore probably won't happen.
11 - Iowa State. What to do with the Cyclones? The AVCA voters didn't have them at #5 last week, as yours truly did, so they don't have that stall to muck, but they still have to do something. Since I had Baylor at #17 (as opposed to their #24 ranking), they still have some explaining to do. Complicating matters are the less than stellar results from Arizona for #13 USC and #14 UCLA, #15 Illinois's flop against PSU and #16 Michigan State making all those AVCA voters look silly. Sillier. Who does that leave them with for #12? Kentucky? Florida State? Pablo has FSU at #5. I'm guessing ISU only falls one spot and they reward Baylor. That's what I'd do if I had Baylor has underranked as they do.
12 - California. Up to #9. I already had them at #10, so they won't jump as far for me. Good team, getting better. I originally had them at #4 to start the season.
13 - USC. Arizona loss offset slightly by ASU win. Good news for the Trojans is that there's no one banging on the door behind them. Although I'd make a case for Baylor, I doubt the AVCA folks will pop them this high.
14 - UCLA. ASU loss offset slightly by Arizona win. Good news for the Bruins is that there's no one banging on the door behind them. Although I'd make a case for Baylor, I doubt the AVCA folks will pop them this high.
15 - Illinois. PSU loss offset slightly by the fact it was Penn State. Good news for the Illini is that there's no one banging on the door behind them and that PSU is PSU. Although I'd make a case for Baylor, I doubt the AVCA folks will pop them this high. I had Illinois at #11 last week and I'll be watching the Purdue-Michigan result closely.
16 - Michigan State. Say goodbye to the Top 25 for 2009, I'm afraid. Way overrated, but could still put together a decent season. Indiana loss, however, did not help.
17 - Kentucky. Up to #16? I'm thinking AVCA puts Baylor at #16.
18 - Florida State. Pablo ranking of #5.
19 - Arizona. Big win over USC and then that darned loss to UCLA. Treading water?
20 - Wichita State. Loss to Missouri State will probably knock the Shockers out of the Top 25, perhaps replaced by Northern Iowa, keeping the MVC in the poll?
21 - UC Irvine. Gauchos push Anteaters to the cusp. Room needs to be made for UCSB.
22 - San Diego. An uneventful week, with only the sweep of San Diego State.
23 - Saint Louis. Also an uneventful week.
24 - Baylor. Seriously underrated and in need of a big jump up. This will finally happen this week. Pablo has them at #4. I had them at #17.
25 - Long Beach State. Nice win over Fullerton, solidifying their spot in the Top 25.
Conspicuously missing? TAMU, Purdue, UCSB. Notre Dame? WSU?
I'm going to go ahead and post this, but I'll tweak things after the Sunday matches. Purdue, for instance, is about to go up 2-0 on Michigan.
posted by (R)uffda! at
8:44 AM
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