Minnesota: Icebergs, boulders and soapboxes

Minnesota is coming off a relatively successful season. Relative to what, you ask? Relative to the Titanic’s maiden voyage, I reply. Sure, there were some swell days on the Promenade deck, but, all in all, the trip had some problems. Glass-half-full types can point to the play of the frosh, and the fact the team rebounded from a 7-match losing streak -- which had dropped them to 5-7 in the Big Ten -- to win 6 of their last 8 and finish tied for third at 11-9. But overall the 2007 season has to be viewed as a disappointment, capped off by their 1-3 loss to an iceberg named Sacramento State in the NCAAs. This was the first time the Gophers had ever lost in the opening round, and a match they should have won.

So what about 2008? This is a program that was on the verge of making a legitimate claim to elite status in 2004, only to stumble badly 2 of the last 3 years. Whither direction for the Golden Gopher?

First of all, a look at the roster.

Significant departures

Jessy Jones, middle blocker (.278, 1.62 bpg)
Kelly Roysland, defensive specialist (2.08 dpg)

Dave Manka, Assistant Coach

Significant arrivals

Alex Blatt, 5’11” setter from Orland Park, IL
Ariana Filho, 6’2” middle blocker from Monument, CO
Ashley Suapaia, 5’6” libero/defensive specialist from Bloomington, MN

Laura Bush, Assistant Coach

Projected lineup

Rachel Hartmann, senior setter (with Blatt a definite possibility to replace her)
Brook Dieter, sophomore outside hitter
Lauren Gibbemeyer, sophomore middle hitter
Katie Vatterrodt, senior opposite*
Kyla Roehrig, senior outside hitter*
Kelly Schmidt, senior middle hitter (with Filho a definite possibility to replace her)
Christine Tan, junior libero
Hailey Cowles, sophomore defensive specialist

*Rachelle Hagerty, junior outside hitter, probably fits in here somewhere. Hagerty, Vatterrodt and Roehrig would appear to be competing for two spots, for the second outside hitter and for opposite. [Update 2/10: Hagerty has had another shoulder surgery and has retired -- at least for now -- from the sport.]

Balance of the bench, as of now, consists of defensive specialists Kelly Fallon, a senior, and Suapaia.


Unsolicited opinions

*This is the make-or-break season for the recruiting class of 2005, which was ranked #4 by PrepVolleyball.com. There is no point in sugar-coating what is obvious: this class has not lived up to their hype and this has been a primary factor in the program not meeting expectations.

*Related to the opinion above, is the following: Blatt and Filho have a great chance to supplant Hartmann and Schmidt, respectively, in the starting lineup. In addition, Hagerty could replace either Roehrig or Vatterrodt, also seniors. Heck, a late transfer or late recruit might bump any of the three to a lower rung, since none of them has seized their opportunities on the court. Hagerty has the advantage of having two years of eligibility left, but she has shown a distressing tendency to endanger the lives of inattentive spectators with some of her errant attacks.

*All of the above having been said, these players all have the potential talent and experience to blossom in 2008 and take the Gophers deep in the NCAAs. Redemption can still be had.

*If this does not happen, it’s probably time for the upperclassmen to step aside and make room for the sophomore and freshman class, and for the program to wait patiently for the arrival of Tabi Love, Katherine Harms and Mia Tabberson in 2009.

Projected results

This is the tentative schedule for Minnesota and is, therefore, subject to change. Don’t go booking any flights or hotels based on the information here, unless of course you enjoy spending time in Champaign-Urbana in early October -- and who doesn’t?

Date(s)	Event	Location
8/23	Alumni Match	Sports Pavilion
8/29-31	Creighton Invite (Creighton, TAMU, LSU)	Omaha, NE
9/4-6	Hawaii Invite (Hawaii, Wyoming, Cincinnati)	Honolulu, HI
9/12-14	Diet Coke Classic (Cal, Notre Dame, Cal Poly)	Sports Pavilion
9/19-20	Gopher Invite (UNC, Winthrop, TCU)	Sports Pavilion
9/26	Northwestern	Sports Pavilion
9/27	Wisconsin	Sports Pavilion
10/3	@ Illinois	Champaign, IL
10/4	@ Purdue	West Lafayette, IN
10/10	Indiana	Sports Pavilion
10/11	Penn State	Sports Pavilion
10/15	Iowa	Sports Pavilion
10/17	Michigan State	Sports Pavilion
10/24	@ Ohio State	Columbus, OH
10/25	@ Michigan	Ann Arbor, MI
10/31	@ Penn State	State College, PA
11/1	@ Indiana	Bloomington, IN
11/7	Purdue	Sports Pavilion
11/8	Illinois	Sports Pavilion
11/14	@ Wisconsin	Madison, WI
11/15	@ Northwestern	Evanston, IL
11/21	Michigan	Sports Pavilion
11/22	Ohio State	Sports Pavilion
11/26	@ Iowa	Iowa City, IA
11/29	@ Michigan State	East Lansing, MI

As you can see, the Gophers have scheduled a fairly tough pre-season, and the Big Ten promises to be as competitive in 2008 as it was in 2007 (aside from Penn State, of course, which rarely allowed anyone to even sniff competitiveness). So, we’re going to hedge on this a bit and handle it like a stock analyst rating and put the Gophers at 18-14 as a low-end target (7-5 pre-season) and 24-8 (10-2 pre-season) as a high-end target. Unless they receive substantially stronger play from the upperclassmen, I would also say 18-14 would be the realistic estimate -- and this assumes continued improvement from the underclassmen.

A key for the Gophers should be the first half of their Big Ten schedule where they play 6 of their first 8 matches at home. If they can start the huge boulder rolling, they could have 8 or 9 wins in the first half. They would still have a very difficult second half to play, but they would start that stretch with a huge, rolling boulder. If they should stumble in the first half, however, that boulder may still be rolling, but it would be headed straight for them.

In short, BOULDER!!